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Congratulations to the New Republican U.S. House Members
It was a tsunami of historical proportions!
Key House Races commends all GOP winners, but specifically recognizes incoming U.S. House members in the following categories: those who ousted DEM incumbents; those who fought successfully for open seats; those who kept seats in the GOP column; and the veterans who reclaimed seats they had previously held and lost. All those Congressmen/women are featured below.
In each district block you will find: the winning candidate; geography; a brief summary of the race; the 2010 actual vote %; and the final poll/polling outfit. Links are also provided in each for: contact information; the final Key House Races expert rating (if the race appeared on our Master List prior to the Nov. 2 election); the three year Presidential Voting History average margin; the Cook PVI. Our current 2012 projection (Safe, Likely Hold, Competitive) will be added soon.
We expect these districts to be the “Ground Zero” of the 2012 battle for control of the U.S. House. Voters sent these candidates to Washington with a strong imperative: Stop the unbridled growth of government-we’re Taxed Enough Already. Show your support to them when they stand firm for Constitutional conservatism.
| Martha Roby | Alabama 2nd District (AL-02) | Web | |
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SOUTHEAST - MONTGOMERY SOUTH TO DOTHAN & ANDALUSIA |
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LEANS-R |
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On Nov. 2, a Republican wave engulfed the South, sweeping away many conservative Democrat House members. One termer Bobby Bright (D), former mayor of BIrmingham, was not spared. Martha Roby (R), Montgomery City Councilwoman, labeled Bright as a Pelosi enabler and found success claiming that she was more reflective of the social and fiscal values of AL-02 than Bright was. |
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R+27 | |
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Cook PVI: R+16 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Armed Services, Education and the Workforce |
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LIKELY HOLD | |
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Roby 51% Bright 49% Final Poll: Roby 43% Bright 52% |
Greenberg-26-Aug | ||
| Mo Brooks | Alabama 5th District (AL-05) | Web | |
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NORTHERN-FLORENCE, DECATUR, MADISON, ATHENS, HUNTSVILLE, SCOTTSBORO |
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Conservative Republican Mo Brooks (R), Madison County Commissioner, "primaried" current Rep. Parker Griffith (R) and went on to claim a win over Steve Raby (D), public relations firm president. Griffith was first elected in ’08 as a Democrat. Out of political expediency, he switched parties and became a Republican in Dec. of ’09. His stint as a Republican was short lived. |
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R+18 | |
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Cook PVI: R+12 | ||
| Committees: Armed Services, Homeland Security, Science, Space and Technology |
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Brooks 58% Raby 42% No Polling |
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| Rick Crawford | Arkansas 1st District (AR-01) | Web | |
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NORTHEASTERN (DELTA) - JONESBORO |
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LEANS-R |
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With Marion Berry’s (D) decision to retire after his sixth term, this R trending district was targeted for a GOP pick up. USAF veteran, agriculture journalist, and TV/radio announcer Rick Crawford (R) won easily over Berry aide, Chad Causey (D). With his win, Crawford became the first Republican to represent this conservative district since Reconstruction. |
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R+8 | |
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Cook PVI: R+5 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Transportation and Infrastructure |
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LIKELY HOLD | |
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Crawford 52% Causey 48% Final Poll: Crawford 42% Causey 34% |
Talk Business-14-Oct | ||
| Tim Griffin | Arkansas 2nd District (AR-02) | Web | |
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LITTLE ROCK & CENTRAL ARKANSAS |
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LIKELY-R |
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By retiring, seven term incumbent Vic Snyder (D) opted out of a bruising battle in this district that voted for McCain by almost 10 pts. Former White House aide Tim Griffin (R) trounced state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D). Key issues in Griffin's campaign were easing the tax burden on individuals and families and reducing the tax burden and federal mandates on small businesses. |
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R+4 | |
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Cook PVI: R+5 | ||
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Griffin 58% Elliott 38% Final Poll: Griffin 50% Elliott 38% |
Talk Business-14-Oct | ||
| Steve Womack | Arkansas 3rd District (AR-03) | Web | |
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NORTHWEST-BENTONVILLE, FAYETTEVILLE, SPRINGDALE, FORT SMITH |
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John Boozman (R), AR-03 representative since ’01, received a promotion from AR voters and will be returning to D.C. as a member of the U.S. Senate. In the race to fill Boozman's vacated seat, Ret. Army Colonel Steve Womack, mayor of Rogers since ’98, crushed opponent David Whitaker (D), Fayetteville Asst. City Atty. It's a credit to Womack’s solid leadership that the city of Rogers was voted one of the nation’s best places to live in ’10. |
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R+26 | |
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Cook PVI: R+16 | ||
| Committee: Appropriations |
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Womack 73% Whitaker 28% No Polling |
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| Paul Gosar | Arizona 1st District (AZ-01) | Web | |
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MOST OF AZ OUTSIDE PHOENIX & TUCSON METROPOLITAN AREAS |
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LEANS-R |
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Former country prosecutor Ann Kirkpatrick (D) captured this open seat in 2008, but was unable to hold it against Tea Party and Palin backed candidate, Dr. Paul Gosar (R), a dentist and small business owner. Gosar is a strong advocate for secure borders, lower taxes, less government intrusion on small business, and energy independence. |
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R+8 | |
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Cook PVI: R+6 | ||
| Committees: Oversight and Government Reform, Natural Resources |
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Gosar 50% Kirkpatrick 44% Final Poll: Gosar 46% Kirkpatrick 39% |
The Hill/ANGA-30-Sep | ||
| Ben Quayle | Arizona 3rd District (AZ-03) | Web | |
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NORTH PHOENIX & NORTHERN PHOENIX SUBURBS |
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John Shadegg (R) served the AZ 3rd since '95 and is stepping down after the 111th Congress. In a hotly contested and closely watched race, Ben Quayle (R), son of former VP Dan Quayle, defeated Jon Hulburd (D). Quayle's campaign directly challenged the President's failed policies. In one of his ads, Quayle unabashedly labeled Obama "the worst president in history". |
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R+15 | |
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Cook PVI: R+9 | ||
| Committees: Judiciary, Homeland Security |
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Quayle 52% Hulburd 41% No Polling |
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| David Schweikert | Arizona 5th District (AZ-05) | Web | |
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ALL OF TEMPE & SCOTTSDALE & PORTIONS OF CHANDLER, MESA & AHWATUKEE AREA OF PHOENIX |
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TOSS-UP-R |
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Incumbent Harry Mitchell (D) won this seat from J.D. Hayworth (R) in 2006, but his votes for failed Dem policies torpedoed him this time around. David Schweikert (R), former state Rep. and Maricopa Cty. Treas., sailed to an easy win. Schweikert's top priority as a Congressman is fiscal discipline. He is an avid supporter of strong border security and opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants. |
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R+8 | |
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Cook PVI: R+5 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
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Schweikert 52% Mitchell 43% Final Poll: Schweikert 45% Mitchell 42% |
The Hill/ANGA-18-Oct | ||
| Jeff Denham | California 19th District (CA-19) | Web | |
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CENTRAL-PARTS OF FRESNO, MADERA. MARIPOSA, TUOLOMNE, AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES |
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Rep. George Radanovich (R) represented this district since 1995. His retirement set up a contest between state Sen., rancher, and businessman Jeff Denham (R) and physician-lawyer Loraine Goodwin (D). Denham claimed an easy victory in this rural conservative district. As a state Sen., Denham has supported policies to keep jobs in the state, solve water issues, and restore fiscal accountability. |
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R+16 | |
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Cook PVI: R+9 | ||
| Committees: Natural Resources, Transportation and Infrastructure, Veterans’ Affairs |
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Denham 65% Goodwin 35% No Polling |
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| Scott Tipton | Colorado 3rd District (CO-03) | Web | |
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WESTERN & SOUTH CENTRAL CO, GRAND JUNCTION, DURANGO AND PUEBLO |
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TOSS-UP-R |
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John Salazar (D) won this seat in '04 in an open-seat race and despite the conservative lean of the district, he was twice re-elected. State Rep. and business owner Scott Tipton (R) unsuccessfully opposed Salazar in '06, and filed for a rematch in response to Salazar's support for Obamacare. In the second meeting, Tipton triumphed. As his campaign centerpiece, Tipton pledged to fight to repeal and replace the disastrous health care takeover. |
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R+10 | |
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Cook PVI: R+5 | ||
| Committee: Small Business, Natural Resources, Agriculture |
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Tipton 50% Salazar 46% Final Poll: Tipton 47% Salazar 43% |
The Hill/ANGA-19-Oct | ||
| Cory Gardner | Colorado 4th District (CO-04) | Web | |
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EASTERN CO, FT. COLLINS, GREELEY, LOVELAND & LONGMONT |
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LEANS-R |
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State Rep. Cory Gardner (R) served as Gen. Counsel and Leg. Dir. to Wayne Allard (R), who held the CO-04 seat in the 90's, then served two terms as a U.S. Senator. Favored to win, Gardner easily defeated one term incumbent Betsy Markey (D). His priorities as a U.S. Congressman will be economic development, healthcare, and education. |
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R+13 | |
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Cook PVI: R+6 | ||
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Gardner 53% Markey 41% Final Poll: Gardner 44% Markey 41% |
The Hill/ANGA-30-Sep | ||
| Steve Southerland | Florida 2nd District (FL-02) | Web | |
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EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, MUCH OF BIG BEND REGION & TALLAHASSEE |
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LEANS-R |
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Widely acknowledged as one of the most endangered Dems, seven term incumbent Allen Boyd (D) barely survived a primary challenge. Small business owner Steve Southerland (R) ran a campaign based on private sector job creation, lower taxes, and reining in government spending. Those proved to be winning issues. |
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R+8 | |
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Cook PVI: R+6 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Transportation and Infrastructure |
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Southerland 54% Boyd 41% Final Poll: Southerland 50% Boyd 38% |
The Hill/ANGA-19-Oct | ||
| Rich Nugent | Florida 5th District (FL-05) | Web | |
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NORTHERN EXURBS OF TAMPA, WESTERN EXURBS OF ORLANDO |
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At the conclusion of the 111th Congress, four termer Ginny Brown-Waite (R) is retiring. Her successor will be Hernando County Sheriff Rich Nugent (R), who had an overwhelming victory over small business consultant James Piccillo (D). During his campaign, Nugent promised to “take his conservative principles to our nation’s capital and clean up this mess in Congress”. |
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R+15 | |
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Cook PVI: R+9 | ||
| Committees: House Administration, Rules |
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Nugent 67% Piccillo 35% No Polling |
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| Daniel Webster | Florida 8th District (FL-08) | Web | |
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MOST OF ORLAND & ORLANDO SUBURBS INCLUDING WALT DISNEY WORLD |
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LIKELY-R |
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Alan Grayson (D) has been one of the most polarizing figures on Capitol Hill. The GOP needed a high profile candidate to overcome Grayson's huge financial advantage and they found one in Daniel Webster (R), former FL House Speaker. With their selection of Webster for Congress, FL-08 voters have ensured that Grayson will no longer spew his inflammatory rhetoric from the well of the House. |
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R+5 | |
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Cook PVI: R+2 | ||
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Webster 56% Grayson 48% Final Poll: Webster 48% Grayson 41% |
Sunshine State News-25-Oct | ||
| Allen West | Florida 22nd District (FL-22) | Web | |
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TOSS-UP-R | |
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In '06, Ron Klein (D) unseated the venerable E. Clay Shaw, Jr. (R) in a close race. Ret. Army Lt. Col. Allen West, on a meager budget, took the fight Klein in '08, but fell short. In 2010, support flowed to West from near and far and he had an ample war chest to compete with and defeat Klein. West vows to work toward reestablishing American Exceptionalism. Like President Reagan, he believes that peace is best kept through a strong national defense. |
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D+4 | |
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Cook PVI: D+1 | ||
| Committees: House Armed Services, Small Business |
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West 54% Klein 46% Final Poll: West 47% Klein 44% |
Sunshine State News-19-Oct | ||
| Sandy Adams | Florida 24th District (FL-24) | Web | |
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EAST CENTRAL FL ENCOMPASSING SUBURBS OF ORLANDO & THE SPACE COAST |
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LEANS-R |
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Suzanne Kosmas (D) was considered to be among the most vulnerable incumbents running and the GOP hoped for an easy takeover. With the entry of accomplished USAF vet and state Rep. Sandy Adams (R) into the race, Kosmas' forced retirement was virtually assured. Adams states: "We can no longer stand by and watch the politicians in Washington spend us into oblivion. We must reduce the size and scope of government." |
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R+7 | |
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Cook PVI: R+4 | ||
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Adams 60% Kosmas 40% Final Poll: Adams 49% Kosmas 37% |
Pub Opinion Strat.-1-Sep | ||
| David Rivera | Florida 25th District (FL-25) | Web | |
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SOUTHEAST - INCLUDING WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY & THE EVERGLADES |
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LEANS-R |
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When Mario Diaz-Balart (R) resigned this seat to run in the more R friendly FL-21, Dems thought with Miami-Dade Cty. Dem Party Chair Joe Garcia (D), they had a chance for a pick up. State Rep. David Garcia proved them wrong. Rivera focussed his campaign on jobs and economic security, world-class education opportunities, a strong national defense and foreign policy, and government that does less taking and more giving. |
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R+8 | |
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Cook PVI: R+5 | ||
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Rivera 52% Garcia 42% Final Poll: Rivera 44% Garcia 43% |
Sunshine State News-26-Oct | ||
| Rob Woodall | Georgia 7th District (GA-07) | Web | |
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EASTERN SUBURBS OF ATLANTA |
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Since ’93, John Linder (R) served as representative of GA’s 7th District. He will retire at the conclusion of the 111th Congress. Linder’s successor will be his Chief of Staff, Rob Woodall (R). Woodall won a decisive victory over Doug Heckman (D), Managing Dir. for a financial services firm. Woodall is a big proponent of the FairTax. |
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R+33 | |
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Cook PVI: R+16 | ||
| Committees: Rules, Budget |
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Woodall 67% Heckman 33% No Polling |
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| Austin Scott | Georgia 8th District (GA-08) | Web | |
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21 COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH MID-STATE |
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LEANS-R |
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Four term incumbent Jim Marshall (D) had a reputation for bucking the party line on health care and taxes, but that was not enough to satisfy his constituents, who opted for the REAL conservative, state Rep. Austin Scott (R), rather than the Blue Dog Marshall. Scott had sights on running for governor of the Peach State, but when he filed for this seat instead, he became the favorite to win. |
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R+17 | |
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Cook PVI: R+10 | ||
| Committees: Armed Services, Agriculture |
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Scott 53% Marshall 47% Final Poll: Scott 53% Marshall 39% |
Landmark-27-Oct | ||
| Raul Labrador | Idaho 1st District (ID-01) | Web | |
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BOISE & SUBURBS, NAMPA, MERIDIAN, LEWISTON, MOSCOW & COEUR D'ALENE |
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TOSS-UP-D |
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State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) was a long shot to win the GOP primary and trailed one term incumbent Walter Minnick (D) in the campaign’s early stages. He came on strong and with his convincing win, Labrador gained the distinction of being the first Puerto Rico born GOP House member. Labrador believes that self-governance by individuals is what makes America strong as a nation. Government of the people is the cornerstone to that foundation. |
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R+35 | |
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Cook PVI: R+18 | ||
| Committees: Oversight and Government Reform, Natural Resources |
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Labrador 51% Minnick 41% Final Poll: Labrador 41% Minnick 44% |
Mason-Dixon-24-Oct | ||
| Joe Walsh | Illinois 8th District (IL-08) | Web | |
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NORTHERN CHICAGO SUBURBS, PORTIONS OF LAKE, MCHENRY & COOK COUNTIES |
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LIKELY-D |
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College instructor and financial advisor Joe Walsh (R) wasn’t given much of a chance to beat three term incumbent Melissa Bean (D), but enthusiastic Tea Party support and Walsh’s energetic campaign branding Bean as a Pelosi rubber stamp earned him a razor thin victory of 292 votes. Walsh's motto: "I'm a proud Reagan Republican who will stand up for the principles of limited government, free enterprise, and lower taxes." |
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R+4 | |
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Cook PVI: R+1 | ||
| Committees: Homeland Security, Oversight and Government Reform, Small Business |
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Walsh 48.5% Bean 48.3% Final Poll: Walsh 41% Bean 41% |
We Ask America-28-Sep | ||
| Bob Dold | Illinois 10th District (IL-10) | Web | |
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NORTHERN CHICAGO SUBURBS |
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TOSS-UP-D |
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In ’06 and ’08, business consultant Dan Seals (D) challenged Mark Kirk (R) for this seat. When Kirk vacated the seat for his eventual winning Senate campaign, Seals thought the path was clear, but businessman Bob Dold (R) proved to be a formidable opponent. Dold labels himself a passionate optimist and ran a positive campaign on the slogan, “Conservative Change Can Begin in Illinois”. |
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D+11 | |
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Cook PVI: D+6 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
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Dold 51% Seals 49% Final Poll: Dold 50% Seals 39% |
We Ask America-15-Oct | ||
| Adam Kinzinger | Illinois 11th District (IL-11) | Web | |
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CHICAGO SUBURBS, OTTAWA, JOLIET, BLOOMINGTON & KANKAKEE |
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LIKELY-R |
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After votes for unpopular Dem legislation, one term incumbent Debbie Halvorson (D) adopted the unconventional strategy of avoiding her voters, thereby earning the nickname of "Hideout Halvorson". USAF Captain Adam Kinzinger (R) entered the world of politics at age 20 when he won a seat on the McLean County Bd. At the ripe age of 32, he will be going to the U.S. House. |
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EVEN | |
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Cook PVI: R+1 | ||
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Kinzinger 58% Halvorson 43% Final Poll: Kinzinger 49% Halvorson 31% |
The Hill/ANGA-30-Sep | ||
| Randy Hultgren | Illinois 14th District (IL-14) | Web | |
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CHICAGO SUBURBS WEST TO IOWA BORDER, AURORA, BATAVIA, DE KALB AND DIXON |
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TOSS-UP-R |
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Current representative, Bill Foster (D), won the special election to fill the seat left vacant by former Speaker Denny Hastert's (R) retirement in '07 and won in '08 as well. In the Feb. GOP primary, State Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) upset Ethan Hastert (R), Denny's son. Foster's Pelosi-like voting record alienated his constituents and threw this election to Hultgren. |
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R+4 | |
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Cook PVI: R+1 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Science, Space and Technology, Transportation and Infrastructure |
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Hultgren 51% Foster 45% Final Poll: Hultgren 43% Foster 42% |
The Hill/ANGA-18-Oct | ||
| Bobby Schilling | Illinois 17th District (IL-17) | Web | |
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WESTERN BORDER: MOLINE, ROCK ISLAND, PORTIONS OF RURAL AREAS NEAR DECATUR AND SPRINGFIELD |
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TOSS-UP-R |
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When questioned about the constitutionality of Obamacare, one termer Phil Hare (D), condescendingly replied that the Constitution "doesn't matter to me." That was the beginning of the end for him. Restauranteur Bobby Schilling’s (R) focus on lower taxes and economic growth propelled him to victory. Schilling maintains that economic growth and prosperity thrive when Americans keep more of their hard earned money and spend it as they choose. |
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D+9 | |
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Cook PVI: D+3 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Armed Services |
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Schilling 53% Hare 43% Final Poll: Schilling 45% Hare 38% |
The Hill/ANGA-18-Oct | ||
| Marlin Stutzman | Indiana 3rd District (IN-03) | Web | |
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NORTHEAST-FORT WAYNE |
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In ’02, at the age of 26, Marlin Stutzman (R) won a seat in the IN State House and advanced to the IN Senate in ’09. He won a special election in June to serve out the term of Mark Souder (R) who resigned over an affair with a staffer. Stutzman defeated Tom Hayhurst (D) to qualify for a full term. In his years of public service, Stutzman has fought for lower taxes, less regulation, and balanced budgets. |
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R+27 | |
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Cook PVI: R+14 | ||
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Stutzman 63% Hayhurst 33% No Polling |
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| Todd Rokita | Indiana 4th District (IN-04) | Web | |
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WEST CENTRAL- FROM BEDFORD NORTH TO LAFAYETTE-ALL OR PART OF 12 COUNTIES |
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Retiring Rep. Steve Buyer (R) has been a member of Congress for nine terms and never received less than 60% of the vote in any election. Immediately after Buyer’s retirement announcement, self described pro-life conservative and fiscal hawk Todd Rokita (R), Sec. of State, put his candidacy in play. Rokita cruised to a win over Purdue professor David Sanders (D). |
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R+29 | |
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Cook PVI: R+14 | ||
| Committees: Administration, Budget, Education and the Workforce |
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Rokita 69% Sanders 26% No Polling |
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| Larry Bucshon | Indiana 8th District (IN-08) | Web | |
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SOUTHWEST INCLUDING GREENCASTLE, TERRE HAUTE, WASHINGTON & EVANSVILLE |
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LIKELY-R |
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Brad Ellsworth (D) captured this seat in the '06 mid-terms and was re-elected in '08. He vacated the seat in a futile quest for the retiring Evan Bayh's Senate post. The open seat created a great GOP pickup opportunity. In vowing to take up the fight to repeal Obamacare, Dr. Larry Bucshon (R) found the winning issue for a decisive win over state Rep. William Trent Van Haaften (D). |
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R+14 | |
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Cook PVI: R+8 | ||
| Committees: Education and the Workforce, Science, Space and Technology, Transportation and Infrastructure |
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Bucshon 58% Van Haaften 38% Final Poll: Bucshon 43% Van Haaften 27% |
Pub Opinion Strat.-22-Jul | ||
| Todd Young | Indiana 9th District (IN-09) | Web | |
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SOUTH EASTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL, INCLUDING BLOOMINGTON |
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LEANS-R |
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Buoyed by Tea Party support, USMC vet and attorney Todd Young (R) scored a primary upset over Mike Sodrel (R), who held this seat from '05 to '07. Running as a conservative and disciple of "new federalism", Young deployed an energetic door to door campaign. In contrast, incumbent Baron Hill (D) appeared detached and aloof from voters' concerns. |
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R+14 | |
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Cook PVI: R+8 | ||
| Committees: Armed Services, Budget |
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Young 52% Hill 42% Final Poll: Young 44% Hill 46% |
The Hill/ANGA-19-Oct | ||
| Tim Huelskamp | Kansas 1st District (KS-01) | Web | |
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WEST AND CENTRAL-INC. SALINA, DODGE CITY, EMPORIA, GARDEN CITY, HAYS, HUTCHINSON |
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Seven term incumbent Jerry Moran (R) vacated this seat for a successful run for the U.S. Senate. State senator and fifth generation farmer Timothy Huelskamp (R) had an overwhelming victory over challenger, Alan Jilka (D), former mayor of Salina. Huelskamp vowed that his key mission would be to end "out of control and out of touch attitudes" on Capitol Hill. |
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R+41 | |
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Cook PVI: R+23 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Budget, Veterans |
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Huelskamp 74% Jilka 23% No Polling |
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| Kevin Yoder | Kansas 3rd District (KS-03) | Web | |
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NORTHEAST - ALL OR PARTS OF WYANDOTTE, JOHNSON & DOUGLAS COUNTIES |
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LIKELY-R |
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As soon as retiring six term incumbent Dennis Moore’s (D) wife, Stephene, was tapped to run on the Dem ticket, a GOP takeover of this district seemed probable. State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) led the race from its onset. As a congressman, Yoder pledges to rein in wasteful spending, fight against tax increases, promote legislation to build jobs, and work to repeal harmful portions of the Obama/Pelosi Healthcare Bill. |
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R+6 | |
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Cook PVI: R+3 | ||
| Committee: Appropriations |
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Yoder 59% Moore 48% No Polling |
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| Mike Pompeo | Kansas 4th District (KS-04) | Web | |
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SOUTH CENTRAL-11 COUNTIES, WICHITA |
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On Nov. 2, attorney and business executive Mike Pompeo (R) defeated state Rep. Raj Goyle (D) and won the right to succeed Todd Tiahrt (R), eight term incumbent. Tiahrt lost to Jerry Moran in the GOP primary for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the retiring Sam Brownback (R). On the stump, Pompeo stressed placing limits on government and reducing public spending. |
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R+23 | |
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Cook PVI: R+14 | ||
| Committee: Energy and Commerce |
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Pompeo 59% Goyle 36% No Polling |
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| Jeff Landry | Louisiana 3rd District (LA-03) | Web | |
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SOUTH CENTRAL - INCLUDING NEW IBERIA, HOUMA & CHALMETTE |
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LIKELY-R |
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When three term incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) resigned this seat to launch an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid, LA-03 rocketed to the top position of likely R takeovers. Attorney and business owner Jeff Landry (R) cruised to victory over attorney Ravi Sangisetty (D) in this strong R leaning district. Landry's campaign stressed confidence in everyday people-not big government-as the answer to America's problems. |
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R+16 | |
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Cook PVI: R+12 | ||
| Committees: Natural Resources, Small Business, Transportation and Infrastructure |
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Landry 64% Sangisetty 36% No Polling |
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| Andy Harris | Maryland 1st District (MD-01) | Web | |
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THE ENTIRE EASTERN SHORE & PARTS OF ANNE ARUNDEL, BALTIMORE & HARFORD COUNTIES |
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LEANS-R |
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In the '08 primary, State Sen. Andy Harris (R) defeated long time incumbent Wayne GIlchrest (R). In an act of pique, Gilchrest threw his support behind Frank Kratovil (D) in the general election which Harris lost by a paper thin margin. This election was a rerun of '08, with most experts projecting a Harris win. However, Harris' overwhelming margin of victory was a pleasant surprise. |
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R+20 | |
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Cook PVI: R+13 | ||
| Committees: Transportation and Infrastructure, Natural Resources, Space, Science and Technology |
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Harris 55% Kratovil 42% Final Poll: Harris 40% Kratovil 40% |
Baltimore Sun-20-Oct | ||
| Daniel Benishek | Michigan 1st District (MI-01) | Web | |
|
ENTIRE UPPER PENINSULA & PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA WITH 30 OF MICHIGAN'S 83 COUNTIES |
|
LEANS-R |
|
Incensed by the nearly trillion dollar stimulus, Surgeon Dan Benishek (R) jumped into the fray. Initially, Benishek believed he would be opposing Bart Stupak (D). Stupak, who sold out his pro-life principles by voting for Obamacare, announced his retirement shortly after he cast his unpopular vote. Benishek, who narrowly won the GOP primary, found himself facing and ultimately defeating state Rep. Gary McDowell (D). |
|
R+4 | |
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|
Cook PVI: R+3 | ||
| Committees: Natural Resources, Veterans Affairs |
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||
|
Benishek 55% McDowell 45% Final Poll: Nunnelee 44% Childers 39% |
The Hill/ANGA-18-Oct | ||
| Bill Huizenga | Michigan 2nd District (MI-02) | Web | |
|
WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA |
|
|
|
Small business owner and former state Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) claimed an easy victory over Hope College Professor Fred Johnson (D) to claim this seat, which had been held by Peter Hoekstra (R) since ’93. Spurred on by the conservative reawakening, Huizenga returned to the political arena to be “part of the era that begins moving our country in the right direction”. |
|
R+15 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+7 | ||
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|
|||
|
Huizenga 65% Johnson 32% No Polling |
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| Justin Amash | Michigan 3rd District (MI-03) | Web | |
|
SOUTHWESTERN-GRAND RAPIDS, ALL OF BARRY & IONIA COUNTIES, MOST OF KENT COUNTY |
|
|
|
With his decisive victory, state Rep. Justin Amash (R) easily held the seat vacated by Vern Ehlers (R), who retired after serving nine terms. Amash’s opponent was Pat Miles (D) attorney and Pres. of the Grand Rapids Bar Assoc. As a state Rep., Amash has dedicated himself to transparency and accountability and as a U.S. congressman, he will continue his quest for government transparency. |
|
R+14 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+6 | ||
| Committees: Budget, Oversight and Government Reform |
|
||
|
Amash 60% Miles 38% No Polling |
|||
| Tim Walberg | Michigan 7th District (MI-07) | Web | |
|
PARTS OF BRANCH, EATON, HILLSDALE, JACKSON, LENAWEE, CALHOUN & WASHTENAW COUNTIES |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
Dem special interest groups practically camped out in MI-07 in a failed attempt to hold the line for one termer Mark Schauer (D). In one of the most closely watched House races in this cycle, Tim Walberg (R) reclaimed the seat which he narrowly lost to Schauer two years ago. Walberg will be a reliable vote against tax increases and will advocate for health care reform with free market solutions. |
|
R+3 | |
|
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Cook PVI: R+2 | ||
| Committees: Education and Workforce, Oversight and Government Reform, Homeland Security |
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||
|
Walberg 50% Schauer 45% Final Poll: Walberg 39% Schauer 45% |
EPIC/MRA-17-Oct | ||
| Chip Cravaack | Minnesota 8th District (MN-08) | Web | |
|
NORTHEAST - DULUTH, IRON RANGE |
|
LEANS-D |
|
Chip Cravaack (R), former Navy captain and retired airline pilot, entered this race as an underdog. Incumbent Jim Oberstar (D) had never received less than 59% of the vote in 18 House elections. A video showing Oberstar demeaning concerned constituents reinforced the charge that he was arrogant and out of touch. Cravaack's call for fiscal restraint in D.C. resonated with voters. |
|
D+7 | |
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|
Cook PVI: D+3 | ||
| Committees: Transportation and Infrastructure, Homeland Security, Science, Technology and Space |
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||
|
Cravaack 48% Oberstar 47% Final Poll: Cravaack 46% Oberstar 47% |
Survey USA-28-Oct | ||
| Vicky Hartzler | Missouri 4th District (MO-04) | Web | |
|
WEST CENTRAL INCLUDING JEFFERSON CITY & EASTERN KANSAS CITY SUBURBS |
|
TOSS-UP-D |
|
Armed Services Chair Ike Skelton (D) has represented MO-04 since 1976-the year Carter was elected! Despite the R lean of the district and the evident GOP surge, it seemed inconceivable that one of the longest tenured House Dems would go down, yet he did. Former state Rep. and conservative activist VIcky Hartzler (R) brought her A game to this race and knocked off one of the most powerful Dems on Capitol Hill. |
|
R+24 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+14 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Armed Services |
|
||
|
Hartzler 50% Skelton 45% Final Poll: Hartzler 39% Skelton 46% |
KSN3-27-Oct | ||
| Billy Long | Missouri 7th District (MO-07) | Web | |
|
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER INC. SPRINGFIELD & BRANSON |
|
|
|
Roy Blunt (R), seven term incumbent, vacated this seat and was victorious in claiming the U.S. Senate post held by the retiring Kit Bond (R). On Nov. 2, auctioneer and realtor Billy Long (R) routed attorney Scott Eckersley (D. Long has pledged that he will not abandon solid conservative principles to appease the establishment. |
|
R+30 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+17 | ||
|
|
|||
|
Long 63% Eckersley 30% No Polling |
|||
| Alan Nunnelee | Mississippi 1st District (MS-01) | Web | |
|
NORTHEAST CORNER INCLUDING COLUMBUS, GRENADA, OXFORD, SOUTHAVEN & TUPELO |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
In '08, popular seven term incumbent Roger Wicker (R) was tapped to fill the Senate seat vacated by the retiring Trent Lott (R). Travis Childers (D) won the resulting special election. Despite a conservative voting record, Childers was not long for this world in such an R leaning district. State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R), chair of the Senate Appropriations Comm. easily picked up this seat for the GOP. |
|
R+23 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+14 | ||
| Committee: Appropriations |
|
||
|
Nunnelee 55% Childers 41% Final Poll: Nunnelee 41% Childers 46% |
Anzalone-1-Sep | ||
| Steven Palazzo | Mississippi 4th District (MS-04) | Web | |
|
SOUTHEASTERN INCLUDING LAUREL, HATTIESBURG, GULFPORT & BILOXI |
|
TOSS-UP-D |
|
Since 1989, Gene Taylor (D) had a grip on one of the most conservative districts held by a Dem. Popular state Rep. Steven Palazzo (R) ran on a platform stressing state sovereignty and limited government; and had the winning strategy of making Pelosi his main campaign target rather than Taylor. It will not be easy for Dems to win this seat back any time soon. |
|
R+34 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+20 | ||
| Committees: Armed Services, Science and Technology |
|
||
|
Palazzo 51% Taylor 47% No Polling |
|||
| Renee Elmers | North Carolina 2nd District (NC-02) | Web | |
|
EAST CENTRAL - RURAL AREAS SURROUNDING RALEIGH |
|
LEANS-D |
|
Early on, no one gave nurse and newcomer Renee Ellmers (R) a chance to beat seven termer Bob Etheridge (D). Ellmers' campaign coffers got a much needed boost after a video showing Etheridge assaulting a young man went viral. A close result led to a recount which confirmed that the Palin and Tea Party endorsed Ellmers had ousted the incumbent by 1,489 votes. Ellmers scored one of this cycle's biggest upsets. |
|
R+2 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+2 | ||
|
|
|||
|
Ellmers 50% Etheridge 49% Final Poll: Ellmers 46% Etheridge 41% |
Survey USA-24-Oct | ||
| Rick Berg | North Dakota At-Large District (ND-AL) | Web | |
|
ENTIRETY OF NORTH DAKOTA |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
The GOP needed a top notch candidate to challenge nine term incumbent Earl Pomeroy (D) and they found one in state Sen. Rick Berg (R). Pomeroy's party line voting record, including support for Obamacare, proved to be his undoing. Early on, Berg maintained a comfortable lead. Some polls had the race tightening up, but election day saw Berg coasting to a double digit win. |
|
R+21 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+10 | ||
| Committee: Ways and Means |
|
||
|
Berg 55% Pomeroy 45% Final Poll: Berg 52% Pomeroy 42% |
Rasmussen-19-Oct | ||
| Frank Guinta | New Hampshire 1st District (NH-01) | Web | |
|
SOUTHEAST - MANCHESTER, SEACOAST, LAKES REGION |
|
LEANS-R |
|
Two term incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) was pegged as one of the most endangered incumbents this cycle. Frank Guinta (R), who served Manchester first as state Rep. and then as mayor, sailed to victory in this district once held by John Sununu (R). Guinta's primary campaign issue was reducing the debt and deficit. |
|
EVEN | |
|
|
Cook PVI: EVEN | ||
| Committees: Budget, Transportation and Infrastructure, Oversight and Government Reform |
|
||
|
Guinta 54% Shea-Porter 43% Final Poll: Guinta 46% Shea-Porter 39% |
WMUR/UNH-29-Oct | ||
| Charlie Bass | New Hampshire 2nd District (NH-02) | Web | |
|
WESTERN INCLUDING NASHUA & CONCORD |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
Paul Hodes (D) defeated Charlie Bass (R) in '06 and held this seat for two terms before retiring to run for Judd Gregg's (R) Senate seat, a contest Hodes lost. Lawyer/Lobbyist Ann Kuster (D) faced Bass for the open seat. Bass eked out a narrow victory over Kuster. Two additional candidates combined for 5% of the vote. This D leaning district will be a top Dem target in '12. |
|
D+6 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: D+3 | ||
| Committee: Energy and Commerce |
|
||
|
Bass 48% Kuster 47% Final Poll: Bass 40% Kuster 43% |
WMUR/UNH-29-Oct | ||
| Jon Runyan | New Jersey 3rd District (NJ-03) | Web | |
|
EAST TO WEST IN SOUTH JERSEY - MOST OF BURLINGTON & OCEAN COUNTIES, CHERRY HILL |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
NJ-03 had been in GOP hands for two dozen years before state Sen. John Adler (D) captured it in '08. In the midterm matchup, NFL gridiron star and community activist, Jon Runyan (R), opposed Adler. Serious missteps, including campaign involvement in the recruitment of a sham Tea Party candidate, contributed to Adler's demise. Runyan, who refers to the Constitution as his "playbook", won the day. |
|
D+4 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+1 | ||
| Committees: Armed Services, Veterans Affairs, Natural Resources |
|
||
|
Runyan 50% Adler 47% Final Poll: Runyan 48% Adler 43% |
Monmouth/Gannett-24-Oct | ||
| Steve Pearce | New Mexico 2nd District (NM-02) | Web | |
|
SOUTHERN - LAS CRUCES, ROSWELL |
|
LEANS-R |
|
Steve Pearce (R) was one of several GOP candidates who returned to claim a seat they previously occupied. In '08, Pearce vacated this seat which he had held from '03 to '07, for an unsuccessful run for U.S. Senate. Democrats had hoped that freshman Harry Teague (D) had the wiles to win AND hold this R leaning district, but Pearce's decisive victory determined otherwise. |
|
R+10 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+6 | ||
|
|
|||
|
Pearce 55% Teague 45% Final Poll: Pearce 48% Teague 45% |
Albuquerque Journ.-29-Oct | ||
| Joe Heck | Nevada 3rd District (NV-03) | Web | |
|
HENDERSON, PARTS OF NORTH LAS VEGAS AND SUMMERLIN, MOST OF CLARK COUNTY |
|
LEANS-R |
|
After winning the primary, Dr. Joe Heck (R) made this statement: "Republicans tonight are sending a loud and resounding message to the Washington establishment: we are united, we are focused, and we are motivated to work through November and take back the people’s 3rd Congressional District". Dana Titus (D), the target of that message, was ousted by the voters of NV-03. |
|
D+4 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: D+2 | ||
| Committees: Armed Services, Education and the Workforce, Intelligence |
|
||
|
Heck 48% Titus 47% Final Poll: Heck 53% Titus 43% |
LV Review-Journal-27-Oct | ||
| Mike Grimm | New York 13th District (NY-13) | Web | |
|
STATEN ISLAND, PARTS OF BROOKLYN |
|
LEANS-D |
|
The foibles of former Rep. Vito Fossela (R) tossed this R leaning NYC suburb into the hands of Mike McMahon (D), in '08. This cycle, Michael Grimm (R), USMC Vet and 11 year FBI Special Agent had a convincing primary win and opposed McMahon. Grimm's experience fighting Iraq in the Persian Gulf and battling crime on the streets of NY served him well in his successful campaign against the incumbent. |
|
R+1 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+4 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
|
||
|
Grimm 52% McMahon 48% No Polling |
|||
| Nan Hayworth | New York 19th District (NY-19) | Web | |
|
HUDSON VALLEY - PARTS OF DUTCHESS, ORANGE, ROCKLAND & WESTCHESTER COUNTIES |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
John Hall (D) captured this seat in '06 after it had been in GOP hands for 12 years. Nan Hayworth (R), whose website header reads "Doctor.Mother.Businesswoman", proved to be an impressive fundraiser, outpacing Hall by a 2 to 1 margin in the first quarter. Hayworth’s commitment to fiscal discipline struck a chord with voters of the 19th and she became one of many NY state GOP success stories this cycle. |
|
R+2 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+3 | ||
|
|
|||
|
Hayworth 53% Hall 47% Final Poll: Hayworth 48% Hall 49% |
Monmouth U.-18-Oct | ||
| Chris Gibson | New York 20th District (NY-20) | Web | |
|
RURAL EASTERN REGION - ALL OR PART OF 10 COUNTIES |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
In '09, venture capitalist Scott Murphy (D) won a special election to fill the seat of interim appointed U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Decorated U.S. Army Col., Ret. Chris Gibson (R) attracted Tea Party support with issues of fiscal restraint and repealing Obamacare, and although he trailed for most of the campaign, a late surge found him up by a healthy margin in the final vote tally. |
|
R+4 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+2 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Armed Services |
|
||
|
Gibson 55% Murphy 45% Final Poll: Gibson 51% Murphy 42% |
Sienna College-25-Oct | ||
| Richard Hanna | New York 24th District (NY-24) | Web | |
|
CENTRAL - UTICA, ROME & AUBURN |
|
TOSS-UP-D |
|
Incumbent Michael Arcuri (D) won an open seat contest in '06 and narrowly defeated construction company owner/president Richard Hanna (R) in '08. Hanna signed on to a rematch. Arcuri lost some base support with his vote against Obamacare. Hanna's stance on reining in spending, lowering taxes, and health care reform earned him enthusiastic conservative support. |
|
R+1 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+2 | ||
| Committees: Transportation and Infrastructure, Education and the Workforce |
|
||
|
Hanna 53% Arcuri 47% Final Poll: Hanna 37% Arcuri 47% |
The Hill/ANGA-18-Oct | ||
| Ann Marie Buerkle | New York 25th District (NY-25) | Web | |
|
NORTH CENTRAL - SYRACUSE TO NE SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER |
|
LEANS-D |
|
It took 21 days to determine the outcome of this race. On Nov. 23, Asst.. NY State Atty. Gen. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) was declared the winner by a scant margin of 567 votes over one termer Dan Maffei (D), former staffer to Sens. Bill Bradley and Dan Moynihan, and Rep. Charles Rangel. Independent voters disillusioned with failed Dem policies shifted to the GOP this cycle. In districts like NY-25, that movement gave the GOP a winning edge. |
|
D+7 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: D+3 | ||
|
|
|||
|
Buerkle 50.2 Maffei 49.8 Final Poll: Buerkle 39% Maffei 51% |
Sienna College-17-Oct | ||
| Tom Reed | New York 29th District (NY-29) | Web | |
|
|
LIKELY-R | |
|
In March '10, one termer Eric Massa (D) resigned this seat over charges of sexual misconduct. Gov. David Paterson refused to call a special election, leaving over 600,000 NY voters without a voice in Congress for eight months. When the election was finally held on Nov. 2, former mayor of Corning, Tom Reed (R), won handily over former CIA agent Matt Zeller and was sworn in immediately to fill the vacant seat. |
|
R+9 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+5 | ||
| Committees: Judiciary, Transportation and Infrastructure |
|
||
|
Reed 56% Zeller 44% Final Poll: Reed 44% Zeller 30% |
Sienna College-21-Sep | ||
| Steve Chabot | Ohio 1st District (OH-01) | Web | |
|
SOUTHWEST-CINCINNATI, PORTIONS OF HAMILTON & BUTLER COUNTIES |
|
LEANS-R |
|
Steve Chabot (R) was representative for 14 years before losing to former state Rep. and Minority Whip Steve Driehaus (D) in the Obamawave of '08. Driehaus signed off on the Stupak health care abortion compromise, leaving him open to attack. The seasoned Chabot grabbed the momentum from the outset, sailing to victory and to his eighth term as a House member. |
|
D+1 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: D+1 | ||
| Committees: Judiciary, Small Business, Foreign Affairs |
|
||
|
Chabot 52% Driehaus 45% Final Poll: Chabot 53% Driehaus 41% |
Survey USA-29-Sep | ||
| Bill Johnson | Ohio 6th District (OH-06) | Web | |
|
SOUTHEAST UP TO YOUNGSTOWN |
|
TOSS-UP-D |
|
Incumbent Charlie Wilson (D) won this seat in '06. Although he championed himself as a moderate, he voted in favor of Obamacare. USAF vet and businessman Bill Johnson (R) has been a strong voice in OH for lower taxes and a champion of the region's coal industry. He was compelled to enter the race, which he won, for two reasons: "Faith and love of my country." |
|
R+1 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+2 | ||
|
|
|||
|
Johnson 50% Wilson 45% No Polling |
|||
| Steve Stivers | Ohio 15th District (OH-15) | Web | |
|
CENTRAL, DOWNTOWN AND WESTERN COLUMBUS SUBURBS |
|
LIKELY-R |
|
The battle for this swing district featured a rematch between former Franklin Cty. Comm. Pres. Mary Jo Kilroy (D), and 25 year Army veteran and state Sen. Steve Stivers (R). Kilroy won the first round in '08 by less than 1%. This time, it was a blowout favoring Stivers. Coupled with the sour economy, Kilroy's votes for stimulus, Cap & Tax and Obamacare signaled her death knell. Stiver's campaign stressed tax cuts, job creation, and cutting government spending. |
|
EVEN | |
|
|
Cook PVI: D+1 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
|
||
|
Stivers 55% Kilroy 41% Final Poll: Stivers 47% Kilroy 38% |
The Hill/ANGA-30-Sep | ||
| Jim Renacci | Ohio 16th District (OH-16) | Web | |
|
NORTHEAST - STARK COUNTY, CANTON, MEDINA & ASHLAND |
|
LEANS-R |
|
In '08, state Sen. John Boccieri (D) became the first Democrat to represent OH-16 in almost 60 years. Two years later, former Wadsworth Mayor and successful businessman Jim Renacci (R) recovered the seat for the GOP. Renacci ran on "restoring common sense conservatism to government" and repealing Obamacare. He charged that Boccieri places "a higher priority on the wishes of Nancy Pelosi (D) than he does on the will of his constituents". |
|
R+7 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+4 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
|
||
|
Renacci 52% Boccieri 41 % Final Poll: Renacci 42% Boccieri 39% |
The Hill/ANGA-30-Sep | ||
| Bob Gibbs | Ohio 18th District (OH-18) | Web | |
|
EASTERN REGION-RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
In '06, outgoing incumbent Zach Space (D) won this open seat vacated by Robert Ney (R), who was convicted on charges relating to the Abramoff scandal. In just eight years, Bob Gibbs (R), has risen through the ranks of the OH House to Chairman of the Ways and Means Comm. in the OH Senate to U.S. Congressman. By electing Gibbs, OH-18 voters returned the district to its traditional conservative roots. |
|
R+13 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+7 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Transportation and Infrastructure |
|
||
|
Gibbs 54% Space 40% Final Poll: Gibbs 43% Space 43% |
On-Message-4-Aug | ||
| James Lankford | Oklahoma 5th District (OK-05) | Web | |
|
CENTRAL - INC. OKLAHOMA CITY |
|
|
|
Mary Fallin (R), representative since ’97, mounted a successful run for OK governor. Her successor will be James Lankford (R), director of Falls Creek Youth Camp, one of the largest Christian camps in the nation. Lankford’s main issues were “saying no to an out of control Federal government and the belief that this is still the greatest nation mankind has ever seen.” Lankford handily defeated attorney and businessman Billy Coyle (D). |
|
R+24 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+13 | ||
| Committees: Budget, Oversight and Government Reform, Transportation and Infrastructure |
|
||
|
Lankford 62% Coyle 35% No Polling |
|||
| Mike Kelly | Pennsylvania 3rd District (PA-03) | Web | |
|
NORTHWEST INCLUDING ERIE |
|
LEANS-R |
|
Landscape business owner Kathy Dahlkemper (D) surfed in on the Dem wave of '08. Her votes for porkulus and Obamacare damaged her re-election chances in this conservative district. Mike Kelly (R) leveraged his experience as a successful auto dealership owner to forcefully make the case for the government ceasing wasteful spending and living within its means. |
|
R+4 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+3 | ||
| Committees: Oversight and Government Reform, Education and the Workforce, Foreign Affairs |
|
||
|
Kelly 56% Dahlkemper 44% Final Poll: Kelly 44% Dahlkemper 37% |
Mercyhurst College-5-Oct | ||
| Pat Meehan | Pennsylvania 7th District (PA-07) | Web | |
|
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
When Joe Sestak (D) relinquished this seat to run for U.S. Senate, a contentious battle ensued between tough nosed federal prosecutor Tom Meehan (R) and state Rep. Bryan Lentz (D). Meehan offered concrete solutions to runaway spending in Washington and mounting job losses in PA. Although the race polled neck and neck until late, Meehan surprised with a double digit victory. |
|
D+7 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: D+3 | ||
|
|
|||
|
Meehan 55% Lentz 44% Final Poll: Meehan 34% Lentz 31% |
Franklin-Marshall-11-Oct | ||
| Mike Fitzpatrick | Pennsylvania 8th District (PA-08) | Web | |
|
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS, BUCKS COUNTY |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
Mike Fitzpatrick (R) held this seat in '07-'09 before losing the '08 election to Patrick Murphy (D) by just over 1,500 votes. In one of the nastiest House battles in PA, Fitzpatrick reclaimed his seat by tapping into voter anger over Murphy's votes for the failed porkulus and Obamacare and garnering support from Tea Party conservatives in this wealthy Philly suburb. |
|
D+6 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: D+2 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
|
||
|
Fitzpatrick 54% Murphy 46% Final Poll: Fitzpatrick 51% Murphy 46% |
Monmouth/Gannett-13-Oct | ||
| Tom Marino | Pennsylvania 10th District (PA-10) | Web | |
|
|
SHAMOKIN, WILLIAMSPORT & CARBONDALE TO NORTHEAST |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
The GOP had held this seat for nearly 50 years before professor and Pentagon Advisor Chris Carney (D) won it from a scandal plagued R incumbent in '08. Carney's votes for unpopular Dem legislation made him an easy target for former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino (R), who overcame initial polling deficits to take the lead as election day neared. |
|
R+15 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+8 | ||
| Committees: Foreign Affairs, Homeland Security, Judiciary |
|
||
|
Marino 55% Carney 45% Final Poll: Marino 47% Carney 39% |
Times Leader-21-Oct | ||
| Lou Barletta | Pennsylvania 11th District (PA-11) | Web | |
|
NORTHEAST INCLUDING SCRANTON, POCONOS, BLOOMSBURG, CARBON, COLUMBIA, LACKAWANNA, LUZERNE & MONROE COUNTIES |
|
TOSS-UP-R |
|
The third time was the charm for Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta (R). He made short work of Paul Kanjorski (D), a fixture on Capitol Hill since 1985, after losing to him twice before. As mayor, Barletta cracked down on businesses employing illegals and put Hazleton on the path to fiscal health after inheriting a massive budget shortfall. This accomplishment earned him PA "Mayor of the Year" recognition. |
|
D+10 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: D+4 | ||
|
|
|||
|
Barletta 55% Kanjorski 46% Final Poll: Barletta 39% Kanjorski 47% |
Times Leader-21-Oct | ||
| Tim Scott | South Carolina 1st District (SC-01) | Web | |
|
COASTAL AREAS FROM SEABROOK ISLAND UP TO THE NC BORDER-INC. CHARLESTON & MYRTLE BEACH |
|
|
|
Henry Brown (R), Rep. since ’01, is retiring after the 111th Congress. In the GOP primary, state Rep. Tim Scott (R) won a convincing victory over Charlestown Cty. Commissioner Paul Thurmond (R) (son of the late Strom Thurmond) and easily handled frequent candidate Ben Frasier (D). The newly elected GOP House members selected Scott for the Elected Leadership Committee. |
|
R+29 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+10 | ||
| Committees: Rules, Transportation and Infrastructure |
|
||
|
Scott 65% Frasier 29% No Polling |
|||
| Jeff Duncan | South Carolina 3rd District (SC-03) | Web | |
|
WESTERN - INC. EASLEY, CLEMSON, ANDERSON, GREENWOOD, NORTH AUGUSTA, WEST AIKEN |
|
|
|
J. Gresham Barrett (R), representative since ‘02, vacated this seat to run for governor but lost the primary to Nikki Haley (R). Real estate executive and state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) easily defeated commercial pilot Jane Dyer (D) who was making her second run for this seat. As a state Rep., Duncan has consistently fought to protect the taxpayer and was named a “Taxpayer Hero” for his stance against government growth and spending. |
|
R+29 | |
|
|
Cook PVI: R+17 | ||
| Committees: Natural Resources, Homeland Security, Foreign Affairs |
|
||
|
Duncan 63% Dyer 36% No Polling |
|||
| Trey Gowdy | South Carolina 4th District (SC-04) | Web | |
|
NORTHERN - INC. GREENVILLE & SPARTANBURG |
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Incumbent Bob Inglis (R) met the same fate as many of his moderate counterparts. He was defeated by a real conservative, Trey Gowdy (R), in the GOP primary. Gowdy, an accomplished federal prosecutor and 7th Circuit D.A, easily dispatched retired businessman Paul Corden (D) in the general election. Gowdy heartily embraced Tea Party support throughout his year long campaign to oust Inglis. |
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R+28 | |
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Cook PVI: R+15 | ||
| Committees: Judiciary, Oversight and Government Reform, Education and the Workforce |
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Gowdy 64% Corden 29% No Polling |
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| Mick Mulvaney | South Carolina 5th District (SC-05) | Web | |
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NORTH-CHESTER, FAIRFIELD, LANCASTER & YORK COUNTIES |
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LEANS-R |
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State Sen. and former small business owner John "Mick" Mulvaney (R) focussed deserved negative attention on opponent Budget Comm. Chair and 14 term incumbent John Spratt (D), attacking him for failing to introduce a '10 budget and for being out of touch with his constituents. As pillars of his campaign, Mulvaney vowed to work for the repeal of Obamacare and to return fiscal sanity to D.C. |
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R+11 | |
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Cook PVI: R+7 | ||
| Committees: Budget, Small Business |
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Mulvaney 55% Spratt 45% Final Poll: Mulvaney 49% Spratt 39% |
The Hill/ANGA-19-Oct | ||
| Kristi Noem | South Dakota At-Large District (SD-AL) | Web | |
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ENTIRETY OF SOUTH DAKOTA |
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TOSS-UP-R |
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Due to her fund raising prowess, state Rep. Kristi Noem (R) had the resources to mount an effective campaign linking three term incumbent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) to the failed policies of Obama/Pelosi. Herseth-Sandlin was put on the defensive early and never regained her footing. Incoming GOP House members selected Noem for the Elected Leadership Committee. |
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Cook PVI: | ||
| Committees: Education & the Workforce, Natural Resources |
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Noem 48% Herseth Sandlin 46% Final Poll: Noem 45% Sandlin 43% |
Argus Leader-21-Oct | ||
| Chuck Fleischmann | Tennessee 3rd District (TN-03) | Web | |
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NORTH-SOUTH STRIP IN EAST INC. CHATTANOOGA, OAK RIDGE, & CLEVELAND |
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Rep. Zach Wamp (R) assumed this office in ’95. He retired this year to mount an unsuccessful run for governor of Tennessee. Wamp lost the GOP primary to Bill Haslam (R), who went on to win the governorship. In the general election for U.S. Congress, Attorney and businessman Chuck Fleischmann (R) crushed John Wolfe (D). |
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R+21 | |
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Cook PVI: R+13 | ||
| Committees: Small Business, Natural Resources |
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Fleischmann 57% Wolfe 28% No Polling |
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| Scott DesJarlais | Tennessee 4th District (TN-04) | Web | |
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SOUTH TO NORTH CENTRAL, ALL OF 21 COUNTIES & PARTS OF 3 OTHERS |
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TOSS-UP-R |
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Four termer Lincoln Davis (D) did not follow his fellow staters John Tanner (D) and Bart Gordon (D) into retirement, but should have. Even though he opposed unpopular Dem policies, he suffered low approval ratings. Newcomer Dr. Scott Desjarlais (R) proposed a freeze on non-budgetary items and lessening the tax burden. Davis ended up like two dozen other Blue Dogs, looking for a new job. |
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R+16 | |
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Cook PVI: R+13 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Education and the Workforce, Oversight and Government Reform |
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DesJarlais 57% Davis 39% Final Poll: Desjarlais 41% Davis 45% |
Pub Opinion Strat.-12-Aug | ||
| Diane Black | Tennessee 6th District (TN-06) | Web | |
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CENTRAL-INCLUDING NASHVILLE SUBURBS |
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LIKELY-R |
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Twenty five year incumbent Bart Gordon (D) was not among the many Blue Dogs who lost their seats on Nov. 2. He saw the wave coming and CHOSE early retirement. Gordon's voting record had trended left while his district was trending right. State Sen. and R.N. Diane Black (R) would have been a formidable foe for Gordon. For a newcomer like Brett Carter (D), she was deadly. |
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R+15 | |
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Cook PVI: R+13 | ||
| Committees: Budget, Ways and Means |
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Black 67% Carter 29% No Polling |
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| Stephen Fincher | Tennessee 8th District (TN-08) | Web | |
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NORTHWESTERN |
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LIKELY-R |
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Twenty two year incumbent John Tanner (D) announced in late '09 that this term would be his last. State Sen. Roy Herron (D) faced off against farmer and regionally renowned Gospel singer Stephen Fincher (R). As a legislator, Herron could not hide from his liberal voting record. With a clear mandate from his constituents, Fincher vows to work toward limiting federal power and returning money and control to the states. |
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R+6 | |
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Cook PVI: R+6 | ||
| Commitees: Agriculture, Transportation and Infrastructure |
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Fincher 59% Herron 39% Final Poll: Fincher 47% Herron 37% |
The Hill/ANGA-7-Oct | ||
| Bill Flores | Texas 17th District (TX-17) | Web | |
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EAST CENTRAL - WACO, CRAWFORD, COLLEGE STATION |
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LIKELY-R |
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Chet Edwards (D) survived for 20 years in one of the most heavily Republican districts in the nation represented by a Democrat. This election, he met his match in Bill Flores (R), 30 year oil industry executive. Flores' conservative platform emphasized limited government, energy independence, and border security. Although it was widely predicted that Edwards would not survive this time, the size of Flores' win was stunning. |
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R+37 | |
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Cook PVI: R+20 | ||
| Committees: Budget, Natural Resources, Veterans’ Affairs |
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Flores 62% Edwards 37% Final Poll: Flores 52% Edwards 40% |
The Hill/ANGA-19-Oct | ||
| Quico Canseco | Texas 23rd District (TX-23) | Web | |
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SOUTHWEST - PANHANDLE |
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TOSS-UP-R |
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In '06, Ciro Rodriguez (D) won the open seat left by the resignation of the popular Henry Bonilla (R), who had held it from '93-'07. Rodriguez' support of big government solutions stifled economic growth and job creation in the district. Businessman Quico Canseco (R) made the case for lower taxes, smaller government, and traditional family values. The verdict of the voters was Canseco for U.S. Congress. |
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R+6 | |
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Cook PVI: R+4 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
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Canseco 49% Rodriguez 44% Final Poll: Canseco 43% Rodriguez 37% |
On-Message-16-Aug | ||
| Blake Farenthold | Texas 27th District (TX-27) | Web | |
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SOUTHEAST GULF COAST - CORPUS CHRISTI, BROWNSVILLE |
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LEANS-D |
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Solomon Ortiz (D) was elected to Congress in 1982 as the first representative from the newly created TX-27. In more than two decades, he faced no opposition for re-election. Blake Farenthold (R), conservative talk-radio host, cited Obamacare as his impetus for challenging Ortiz. Grassroots Tea Party support carried the underdog Farenthold to a very narrow victory, confirmed by a recount, in this 70% majority Hispanic district. |
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R+1 | |
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Cook PVI: R+2 | ||
| Committees: Transportation and Infrastructure, Oversight and Government Reform, Homeland Security |
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Farenthold 48% Ortiz 47% No Polling |
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| Scott Rigell | Virginia 2nd District (VA-02) | Web | |
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ACCOMACK & NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES - VIRGINIA BEACH, PARTS OF NORFOLK & HAMPTON |
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LEANS-R |
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In '08, Glenn Nye's (D) service as a diplomat with the State Department was a plus in his winning campaign in this district with a large military presence. Two years later, voters of VA-02 returned to their conservative roots and gave auto dealership owner Scott Rigell (R) a resounding victory over Nye. Rigell referenced patriots like Jefferson and Madison to make the case that VA has a special duty to lead the charge for the renewal of America. |
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R+9 | |
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Cook PVI: R+5 | ||
| Committees: Armed Services, Homeland Security, Science, Space and Technology |
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RIgell 53% Nye 43% Final Poll: Rigell 42% Nye 41% |
Virginian-Pilot-21-Oct | ||
| Robert Hurt | Virginia 5th District (VA-05) | Web | |
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CENTRAL - CHARLOTTESVILLE, MARTINSVILLE |
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LEANS-R |
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Special interest $$$ flowed into this Dem firewall race, but even a last minute campaign stop by Obama couldn't salvage this race for one termer Tom Perriello (D). State Sen. Robert Hurt (R) found success in promoting the GOP platform of cutting government spending, calling for the repeal of Obamacare, which Perriello had supported, and opposing the U.S. House-passed Cap & Tax measure. |
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R+10 | |
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Cook PVI: R+5 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
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Hurt 51% Perriello 47% Final Poll: Hurt 51% Perriello 43% |
Survey USA-27-Oct | ||
| Morgan Griffith | Virginia 9th District (VA-09) | Web | |
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SOUTHWEST |
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TOSS-UP-D |
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Rick Boucher (D) had represented the huge 9th District of VA since 1983. He managed to hold his seat even though the district had been trending solid GOP for decades. Morgan Griffith (R), Majority Leader of the VA House of Delegates, successfully made the case that Boucher's vote for Cap & Tax would harm the region's coal industry. Griffith staged one of this cycle's biggest upsets in taking down the entrenched Boucher. |
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R+17 | |
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Cook PVI: R+11 | ||
| Committee: Energy and Commerce |
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Griffith 51% Boucher 46% Final Poll: Griffith 47% Boucher 46% |
Survey USA-25-Oct | ||
| Jaime Herrera Beutler | Washington 3rd District (WA-03) | Web | |
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SOUTHWEST FROM OLYMPIA TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER |
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LEANS-R |
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Brian Baird (D) vacated this seat after serving for six terms. The open seat contest in this Republican trending district pitted state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R) against former state Rep. and Majority Leader Denny Heck (D). Herrera, age 31, won voters with her pledge to work toward repealing Obamacare and statements such as, “I will be a member of Congress more concerned with saving your money than spending your money.” |
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D+1 | |
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Cook PVI: EVEN | ||
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Herrera 53% Heck 47% Final Poll: Herrera 50% Heck 46% |
Survey USA-27-Oct | ||
| Sean Duffy | Wisconsin 7th District (WI-07) | Web | |
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NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL INCLUDING ALL OR PART OF 20 COUNTIES |
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LEANS-R |
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Describing himself as "bone tired", David Obey (D) surprised the political world by announcing in May that he was pulling the plug on his four decade congressional career. His exit paved the way for Sean Duffy (R), Ashland County D.A. and former reality TV star. Dems scrambled to find a candidate and settled on state Sen. Julie Lassa (D). Duffy's winning campaign focussed on the power of the individual-not the government-being the engine of American prosperity. |
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D+5 | |
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Cook PVI: D+3 | ||
| Committee: Financial Services |
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Duffy 52% Lassa 45% Final Poll: Duffy 46% Lassa 39% |
We Ask America-18-Oct | ||
| Reid Ribble | Wisconsin 8th District (WI-08) | Web | |
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NORTHEAST - GREEN BAY |
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LEANS-R |
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Dissatisfied with the landscape in D.C., political outsider Reid Ribble (R) sold his successful roofing business and filed to run for Congress. Two term incumbent Steve Kagen's (D) votes for porkulus, Cap & Tax, and Obamacare ran contrary to the R lean of WI-08 and he paid the price for it. In 18 short months, Reid Ribble catapulted from being a political nobody to a being a member of the U.S. House. |
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R+4 | |
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Cook PVI: R+2 | ||
| Committees: Agriculture, Budget |
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Ribble 55% Kagen 45% Final Poll: Ribble 45% Kagen 44% |
The Hill/ANGA-18-Oct | ||
| David McKinley | West Virginia 1st District (WV-01) | Web | |
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NORTH - WHEELING, FAIRMONT, CLARKSBURG, MORGANTOWN |
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TOSS-UP-R |
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Dems' chances of holding this seat greatly improved when state Sen. Mike Oliverio (D) "primaried" unpopular and ethically challenged incumbent Alan Mollohan (D). David McKinley (R), who had formerly served for 14 years as a state Rep. and also as Chair of the WV Republican Party Exec. Comm. trailed in the polls early, but peaked at just the right time to notch the win for the GOP. |
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R+6 | |
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Cook PVI: R+6 | ||
| Committee: Energy and Commerce |
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McKinley 50.4% Oliverio 49.6% Final Poll: McKinley 39% Oliverio 42% |
The Hill/ANGA-7-Oct | ||











